Denuclearization of the Middle East
Assessing the risks involved in the nuclearization of the Middle East and its consequences.
A quick overlook :
One of the most sought-after prizes in international disarmament and non-proliferation tactfulness is a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). In such a conflict-ridden area with a history of mistrust and animosity since the past, the prospect of renewed WMD use is all too possible and the outcome is too dangerous for the near future. For these reasons, a WMD-free zone in the Middle East is not only an aspirational goal but a matter of practical urgency. The idea of a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East is not a new one and, indeed, had been proposed by many diplomats decades ago but had failed miserably. Source: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2011-08/long-journey-toward-wmd-free-middle-east
“The denuclearization of the Middle East has been a long-standing goal of the international community. It is a complex issue, as the region is home to a number of nuclear-armed states, and the proliferation of nuclear weapons has been a major source of tension in the region. The denuclearization of the Middle East would help to reduce the risk of nuclear conflict, and would also help to create a more stable and secure region.”
‘A timeline of how middle east was introduced with the prospect of nuclear weapons’
1949: The Israel Defence Forces find sources of uranium in the Negev desert.
1950s: Iran’s nuclear program begins with U.S. assistance as part of the “Atoms for Peace” program, under U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s administration.
1953: Iran launches a civilian nuclear program initiative with the aim of reaching nuclear cooperation agreements with other nuclear-capable states.
1955: The United States agrees to sell Israel a small nuclear research reactor.
1957: Israel begins work on the Negev Nuclear Research Facility which would become the foundation for Israel’s nuclear program in the following years. France begins to build a reactor and helps Israel.
1959: The Tehran Nuclear Research Centre (TNRC) is established at Tehran University.
1960s: Steps to establish a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East begin.
Although nuclear-weapon-free zones share some basic characteristics, each zone typically has a number of distinctive features. This evolutionary process, in which new zones typically add to and often improve on prior zones, suggests that notwithstanding major internal and external barriers, it may be possible to negotiate additional zones. Possible lessons to be derived from the experience of prior zones include:
Promote Greater Cooperation and Information Sharing.
Si Vis Pacem, Para Pacem (If you want peace, prepare for peace).
Utilize Regional Organizations If Present.
Treat Domestic and International Political Change as Opportunities.
Do Not Wait for Holdout States.
Promote Greater Engagement by Civil Society.
Several Milestones, Little Progress
The pursuit of a WMD-free zone in the Middle East dates back decades and has moved slowly, with a variety of states creating periodic initiatives to revitalize the process. The concept of a WMD-free zone in the Middle East was first proposed in the 1970s, but it has been difficult to implement due to the region’s complex political and security dynamics.
The initiative has been further complicated by the fact that some countries in the region possess WMD, while others are suspected of having them. In addition, the region is home to a number of non-state actors, such as Hezbollah and Hamas, which have access to WMD. In recent years, there have been some positive developments in the effort to create a WMD-free zone in the Middle East. In 2010, the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1540, which calls on all states to refrain from developing, acquiring, or transferring WMD. In 2013, the United States and Russia proposed a joint initiative to create a WMD-free zone in the Middle East, and in 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for the establishment of such a zone.
Despite these developments, there are still significant challenges to creating a WMD-free zone in the Middle East. One of the biggest obstacles is the lack of trust between the countries in the region. This has been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Syria, which has further strained relations between the countries in the area. In addition, there is a lack of consensus on the scope of the WMD-free zone, with some countries wanting it to include all WMD and others only wanting it to include nuclear weapons. Finally, there is the issue of verification. Without a reliable verification system, it will be difficult to ensure that countries in the region are complying with the terms of the WMD-free zone. This is a particularly difficult challenge, as it requires the cooperation of all the countries in the area.
Source: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-09/features/middle-eastern-wmd-free-zone-we-any-closer-now
The Middle East free of nuclear weapons: possible, probable or pipe-dream?
By far three of the important countries in the middle east, Israel, Iran and Iraq have shown significant development in the scope of building a nuclear arsenal that goes beyond the agenda of a WMD- free zone.
However, after the first Persian Gulf war Iraq lost terribly and had to give up any development Saddam Hussein made with its arsenal as a price of defeat. No such cases have been on record for either of the remaining countries that are Iran and Israel. Israel not being a part of the Non-proliferation treaty claiming it’s against their national policy and interest has given rise to various speculations as to how Israel is capable of building such an arsenal in the unstable Middle East.
Iran states that the purpose of its nuclear program is the generation of power and that any other use would be a violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, of which it is a signatory, as well as being against Islamic religious principles.
There have been various theories of how Iran has violated various clauses of the NPT and any related treaties for their own gains. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran had been developing nuclear weapons at a secret site near the city of Abadeh, but that Tehran destroyed the facility after learning it had been exposed.
What is Iran’s Nuclear deal?
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is an international agreement between the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations Security Council that was signed in 2015. The agreement was designed to limit Iran’s nuclear program and prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. The JCPOA is a complex agreement that has been the subject of much debate and controversy.
The JCPOA is a multilateral agreement that was negotiated between the United States, the European Union, and the United Nations Security Council. The agreement was designed to limit Iran’s nuclear program and prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. The agreement includes a number of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities, including limits on uranium enrichment, limits on the number of centrifuges, and limits on the amount of enriched uranium that can be stored. The agreement also includes a number of inspections and verification measures to ensure that Iran is complying with the agreement.
The JCPOA has been controversial since its inception. Critics of the agreement argue that it does not go far enough to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. They argue that the agreement does not address Iran’s ballistic missile program and that it does not address Iran’s support for terrorism. Supporters of the agreement argue that it is the best way to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and that it is a necessary step in the process of normalizing relations between Iran and the International community.
The JCPOA has been in effect since 2016 and has been largely successful in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The agreement has been praised by the international community for its success in limiting Iran’s nuclear program and preventing it from developing nuclear weapons. However, the agreement has also been criticized for its lack of enforcement mechanisms and for its failure to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for terrorism. The JCPOA is an important agreement that has been successful in limiting Iran’s
nuclear program and preventing it from developing nuclear weapons. The agreement has been praised by the international community for its success in limiting Iran’s nuclear program and preventing it from developing nuclear weapons. However, the agreement has also been criticized for its lack of enforcement mechanisms and for its failure to address Iran’s ballistic missile program and support for terrorism. The JCPOA is an important agreement that has been successful in limiting Iran’s nuclear program and preventing it from developing nuclear weapons. Still, it is also an agreement that is subject to much debate and controversy.
However, President Trump withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018, claiming it failed to curtail Iran’s missile program and regional influence. Iran began ignoring limitations on its nuclear program a year later.
Source: https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-iran-nuclear-deal
Is a World Without Nuclear Weapons Really Possible?
A movement known as Global Zero has gained the strength to attempt just that. But how to rid the world of nukes? And how to do so safely? A nuclear-abolition treaty could constructively contribute to global stability if done right, but it could be hazardous if done wrong. Among other things, it could make countries that depend on America’s military protection decide they should seek nuclear weapons of their own. The Global Zero movement could wind up sparking the very wave of nuclear proliferation and instability it was designed to prevent.
The Plan for Global Zero
The Global Zero Action Plan is a comprehensive set of actions to achieve the elimination of all nuclear weapons worldwide. It was developed by Global Zero, an international movement of 300 world leaders, national security experts, and concerned citizens who believe that nuclear weapons are a threat to global security and that their elimination is essential. The plan outlines steps that can be taken by governments, international organizations, and civil society to reduce and ultimately eliminate nuclear weapons. Central to the plan is the establishment of a phased and verifiable process to eliminate all nuclear weapons by 2030. This process includes steps such as reducing stockpiles of nuclear weapons, instituting verification mechanisms, and establishing international treaties and forums to support the process. The plan also includes specific steps to address the risk of proliferation, strengthen nuclear security, and create an environment of trust and cooperation.
Source: https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/is-a-world-without-nuclear-weapons-really-possible/
https://www.globalzero.org/reaching-zero/
By: Anulekha Kashyap;
Edited by: Ashmit Gogoi